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Putin is preparing the Southern front?

Putin is preparing the Southern front?Russian FSS said that the terrorist attacks thwarted by the Ukrainian military in Crimea. As a result - the two Russian security forces and two of the attackers were killed. Official Kiev categorically rejects all accusations of Moscow and personally Vladimir Putin, who has already promised not to pass "by such things."

The first outcome of this story: master of the Kremlin refused to meet in Normandy format, which was planned at the G20 summit in China in September. But that Putin is unlikely to be limited. Ahead of us waiting for the next escalation of the Ukrainian-Russian relations and the possible use of this situation for the deployment of combat operations in the south of Ukraine.

Blaming Russia Ukraine terrorists - this is without irony, a new page in the bilateral interstate relations. Until now it was Kiev accused Moscow of promoting terrorism in the Donbass. It gumkonvoyami Russia supplied arms to this Russian military helped the so-called LNR and DNR build two army corps. In the end, it is Russia - not Ukraine - annexed the Crimean peninsula.

FSS can endlessly talk about the Ukrainians, terrorists exploding the Crimea. But at the Lubyanka no one even tries to explain why Ukraine storm the peninsula, which is armed to the teeth, the Russian army? It's like trying with a sword to attack an armored tank. In an official statement the FSS is a question of trying to destroy the Ukrainian tourist industry in the peninsula. But how can you destroy something that died after the annexation of the Crimea, the Russian special services do not explain.

All that is happening now on the administrative border of Ukraine and Crimea, it looks like a typical provocation by Moscow. Its purpose - to demonstrate the inadequacy of the international community of the Ukrainian leadership, which is ready to send to the peninsula of sabotage and reconnaissance groups. But this is what the end result is trying to Kiev, the FSS said. Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov has called the statement of the FSS false and hysterical.

The objective of a new round of escalation in relations between Ukraine and Russia could be another attempt by Moscow to break the overland route to the peninsula. Kerch ferry - not the best message, connecting the Crimea and Russia. Even more so - in the fall and winter. A year ago, the Ukrainian military experts predicted Putin's attempts to break through the Mariupol way to the Crimea. But then, these projections do not materialize.

Today Moscow takes everything so that Russia is forced to defend itself against "bloody junta", which encroach on the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation - in the Crimea. Who and on whose territory encroached, all well known in the world. And this Kremlin Gosped US reminded again. And so the cries from the mouth of Putin "thief": "Stop thief" - seem unconvincing. While this does not prevent him to hint that the Russian army is ready to defend the peninsula. How is it to "protect" the South Ossetians in 2008, also remembers the whole world. And after an organized provocation Russia bombed the Georgian town of Gori - too.

Is a repeat possible something like that in the south of Ukraine? It is. Provocations on the border with the Crimea, large-scale Russian military exercises on the peninsula, the periodic closure of the border by the Crimean hardly accidental. The answer to the question, what is Russia, it seems, is obvious.

The current standoff between Moscow and Kiev is unlikely to significantly worsen the already poor relations between the two countries. It seems that Vladimir Putin does not intend to retreat either in the east or in the south of Ukraine. His goal - to further destabilization of the situation in the country, pro-Russian forces of revenge and attempt to resume control of the central government in Ukraine.

Ukraine today is in a state of war. And Putin hints that Moscow does not forgive "Ukrainian saboteurs" are unlikely to scare anyone. It is obvious that the task-at least for the Kremlin now - force Ukraine to fulfill Minsk agreements: to hold elections in the occupied Donbas legalize LNR and DNR and pass on to Kiev all the financial commitments for the maintenance of these areas. The problem-maximum - to cut through the land route from Russia to the Crimea.

To get involved in full-scale war with Ukraine, Putin is unlikely to be solved. He has enough of its internal and external problems. He may, and crazy, but - not suicidal. He has something to lose, and he is not ready to lose it. Blackmail and provocation - his favorite tricks. The answer to them in Ukraine can be only one - appealing to the international community.
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