New research report is full of gloomy predictions about the climate in Europe in the coming decades, says the Norwegian edition of Dagbladet. Assessment of the dangers that may result in climate change in Europe» ( «Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change») - the so-called report, which the authors predict the occurrence and effect of such natural disasters as floods, forest fires and drought Europe in the next 70 years.
Hardest hit Southern Europe: the authors of the report argue that countries such as Portugal and Spain, to go through such an unprecedented increase in the number of extreme weather disturbances, which, according to the scientist Bjorn Samseta, it will have a significant impact on the economy of both countries.
"Southern and Western Europe will have the worst of all in the coming decades. On their share fall mixture heatwaves and floods in coastal areas. Climatic problems there may be so large that they will affect the whole of Europe, since food production in these countries will be very difficult. This will also affect the economy ", - says Samset.
Centennial flood - often
In the 2080s Southern Europe every year will experience periods of drought and extreme heat, the report's authors wrote. Periods of heat, which they call "a hundred periods of heat," with probability of 70% will occur in southern Europe each year. "Hundred Years 'Drought' can be expected each year with a probability of 60%. It is also expected a lot more forest fires, floods and storms in countries such as Spain and Portugal in the 2080s.
Samset recognizes that the report might scare many:
"The report - a very sad reading. We know what happens when a lot of rain and very hot, and it shows how much can be a bad climate in Europe ", - he says.
The report used a number of techniques to predict extreme weather events. Samset, a researcher at the Center for Research CICERO Climate problems, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, says that the report has been prepared "in a serious and extremely competent research environment."
Scientists are trying to predict the frequency and intensity of natural disasters in Europe in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. To facilitate the tasks of the continent was divided into five parts. Projections for the 2050s reflect the goal to limit the rise in global average temperature to a maximum of two degrees compared to pre-industrial levels, which sets the international community.
In the north there will be more floods, and heat will increasingly
In northern Europe, it is necessary to prepare for floods and heat. According to the report, a chance to experience the "centenarian flood" year 2080 will increase by 20%. Chances are good (35%), that is what we in northern Europe today call the hottest period of the century, will take place every year in the 2080's.
"In the north, it is expected to increase the heat and increase in the number of large wildfires. The number of dry periods also significantly reduced ", - explains Samset.
Simply put, the trend is the same: Europe needs, starting from 2020, and especially since 2050, and continue to expect a significant increase in periods of heat, cold, drought, forest fires, floods and storms. Natural phenomena will also increase in power, and in the opinion of Samseta, we should expect that, due to climate change, some parts of Europe, from time to time will be "put out of the game."
However, he is not pessimistic, saying the future of the continent.
"In our daily life will change a lot, and so it is important to start planning the infrastructure in the north now. Local authorities, for example, should not build housing in areas that are prone to flooding. I think we can cope with climate change, but it will require more resources from the entire society.
The situation in Norway and Northern Europe will be better than in the southern regions of the continent. But the report predicts significant climate change and to the north: we should expect heat, forest fires and floods every year. The chance that in Northern Europe every year will be "a century of heat", is 40%, according to data analyzed by scientists.
- The problem is that these climatic changes will occur at the same time that society must be to abandon fossil fuels. In sum, these two calls to create a very difficult situation for the use of resources in Europe - says Samset last.
- Many people are skeptical of climate research, saying that there is a certain background.
- I've always wondered: what could be someone's personal interest, as predicted, how will the climate in 100 years. Research carried out serious people who took the information from the many other professionals. I think that we all survive, but only if are not going to close on these forecasts and pretend that nothing bad will happen - said Samset about climate change.
Western Europe, namely France, the Benelux countries and Germany, should prepare for flooding and heat have almost every year since the 2020s. Somewhere by 2080 the annual probability of "centennial flood" will grow by 30% to 40% will increase the likelihood of "a hundred years of drought."
"Something of the described in the report will occur no matter what. The purpose - not exceed the so-called "dvuhgradusny barrier", but then we know for sure that there will be more natural disasters. When I perform presentations to students in upper secondary schools, the aim to convey to them the following: despite the fact they build their lives, the climate will be on the agenda as long as they are destined to live.