According to Euroscepticism specialist Simon Usherwood, France is the most likely country to follow Britain in voting to quit the European Union, Euronews reported
As Simon Usherwood told to Euronews, economic woes, terrorist attacks and the re-emergence of Nicolas Sarkozy could all play into the hands of Marine Le Pen at next year’s presidential elections. She is one of the several Eurosceptic leaders to call for similar referendums in the immediate wake of Brexit. Le Pen is now hoping to make that a reality by triumphing in the French presidential elections, set for April and May 2017.
Euroscepticism could also win in the Denmark, Italy, The Netherlands and Austria, the expert warns.
At the same time, a direct imitation of Brexit might not be realistic or possible, Dr Seán Hanley, a senior lecturer in comparative central and east European politics at University College London, says. He argues in favour of a model of Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán, who has picked a fight with the EU over aspects of its policy, such as the resettling of migrants.
Hanley adds: “Rather than a rush to the door and a sudden breakup [of the EU], I would see a scenario more of unravelling, a kind of inertia, some countries selectively not implementing EU policy, like in Poland and Hungary.
“They’re not planning to leave, but they are planning to selectively ignore aspects of policy and see if the EU does anything and they haven’t so far.
“I think if I was Le Pen or another national populist politician I would be looking at what they [Hungary, Poland] are doing and thinking ‘well maybe we can do this’. And western European governments have already done it, to some extent, not in areas of governance and human rights, they’ve done it slightly more on the sly in relation to budget deficits (eg France).”